Zelensky criticizes US envoys for Moscow focus, calls absence in Kyiv ‘disrespectful’

Zelensky criticized US envoys for avoiding Kyiv while engaging with Moscow, calling it “disrespectful.” The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market is at 3% YES, down from 6% a week ago.

The absence of US diplomats in Kyiv is straining Ukrainian patience, while repeated Moscow engagements point to an imbalance in peace negotiations. The May 31 market for a ceasefire sits at 3% YES, having fallen sharply over the past week. Traders are skeptical that Zelensky will receive equitable diplomatic engagement in time to secure a ceasefire by the end of May.

The June 30 market is at 8% YES, up from 6% yesterday, suggesting some expectation of progress within the next 71 days. The market remains bearish overall given ongoing diplomatic stalemates and escalating tensions.

The May 31 market trades at $319 in USDC per day, with $2,734 needed to shift the odds by 5 points, showing how thin the order book is. The June 30 market is thicker: volume at $3,672 per day, requiring $19,968 to move 5 points, a sign of stronger conviction among traders.

This diplomatic snub could further delay any resolution. With Zelensky demanding equal engagement, the odds reflect a growing belief that a ceasefire is unlikely in the short term. At 3¢, YES shares offer a 33x payout if a ceasefire occurs by May 31, but that bet requires confidence in a rapid diplomatic turnaround.

Watch for announcements from US officials about potential visits to Kyiv or any conciliatory statements from Zelensky or Putin. Either could shift market sentiment quickly.