Bitcoin is trading around $65,000, roughly half its all-time high. 21Shares thinks that’s a buying opportunity, not a funeral.

The Swiss crypto asset manager has laid out a base case scenario targeting $100,000 to $110,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026, arguing that the current correction looks more like a pit stop than a dead end. The firm points to several on-chain signals and macro factors that, in its view, suggest the market is consolidating rather than collapsing.

The case for recovery

21Shares strategist Matt Mena has outlined a relatively straightforward thesis: if Bitcoin can punch through the $70,000 resistance level, the path to $100,000 opens up, potentially before the end of Q3 2026.

First, long-term holder balances are near all-time highs, with an increase of roughly $15 billion year-to-date. When long-term holders accumulate during drawdowns, it historically signals that the so-called “smart money” views current prices as undervalued relative to where the asset is headed.

Second, stablecoin supply has risen above $320 billion. When capital is parked in stablecoins rather than withdrawn from crypto entirely, it suggests market participants are waiting for an entry point, not heading for the exits.

Third, 21Shares has identified $60,000 as a key structural support level, roughly aligned with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. That moving average has historically acted as a floor during major corrections.

What went wrong in the first place

21Shares attributes the sell-off to a combination of substantial ETF outflows and broader geopolitical tensions that spooked risk assets across the board.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $4 billion in recent outflows, enough to flip year-to-date flows negative to the tune of -$1.9 billion.

The range of outcomes

21Shares has outlined three scenarios. The base case sits at $100,000 to $110,000. The bull case stretches to $150,000 to $180,000. The bear case contemplates Bitcoin trading between $60,000 and $75,000, essentially staying near current levels or dipping modestly toward that 200-week moving average support.

What this means for investors

According to Mena, a clean break above $70,000 could trigger a squeeze on short positions that have stacked up during the correction, amplifying upward momentum.

ETF flow data will be the canary in the coal mine. The shift from positive to negative year-to-date flows represents a meaningful change in institutional sentiment. If those flows turn positive again, it would validate the thesis that the correction was temporary.

Investors should also consider the source. 21Shares manages crypto investment products and has a commercial interest in bullish narratives. The firm’s earlier forecasts have already shifted more conservative compared to previous cycles, which at least suggests some internal discipline around expectations.