Research by Vera

Research

Data-driven studies of how prediction markets actually move, built on the same production dataset that runs Crypto Briefing’s prediction-market desk. Every report is free to read here, and free to download as a PDF.

More in this series

Two Prices for the Fed

The alignment of retail and institutional pricing highlights potential market efficiency but leaves unexplained discrepancies in rate expectations.

Aug. 20, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
Two Prices for the Fed

The Ships and the Line

The disruption in Hormuz highlights vulnerabilities in global trade routes, emphasizing the need for diversified and resilient supply chains.

Aug. 19, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Ships and the Line

The Settlement Registry

The dominance of machine-settled markets highlights the diminishing role of human judgment, raising concerns about over-reliance on automated systems.

Aug. 18, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Settlement Registry

The Propagation Ladder

Market shocks in World Cup matches reveal how interconnected markets react, highlighting the diminishing impact as distance from the event increases.

Aug. 17, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Propagation Ladder

The Oil Window

The analysis highlights the transient nature of oil market changes, emphasizing the need for cautious interpretation of news as state changes often don't persist.

Aug. 14, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Oil Window

The Hormuz Reconstruction

The market's evolving perception of the Strait of Hormuz disruption highlights the complexities of predicting geopolitical impacts on global trade.

Aug. 13, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Hormuz Reconstruction

The Confirmation Dividend

The study highlights the potential for predictive tools to enhance market efficiency by identifying impactful news, though timing remains uncertain.

Aug. 12, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Confirmation Dividend

The Orphan Moves

The analysis highlights the limitations of market tracking systems, emphasizing the need for improved data coverage to better understand price movements.

Aug. 11, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Orphan Moves

The Minutes Myth

The delayed repricing in prediction markets challenges their perceived efficiency, impacting strategies reliant on rapid market responses.

Aug. 10, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Minutes Myth

The Reflex Map

The study highlights the nuanced impact of news on markets, emphasizing the need to distinguish between inherent volatility and genuine news-driven reactions.

Aug. 7, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
The Reflex Map

One in Three Moves Is Fake

The unpredictability of prediction market reactions highlights the complexity of interpreting news impacts, challenging assumptions about market efficiency.

Aug. 6, 2026 · Download PDF ↓
One in Three Moves Is Fake

Methodology and provenance. Every report is built on Vera’s production dataset, the same event and price pipeline that runs Crypto Briefing’s prediction-market desk. Each report states its own sample window and method. For research and information only, not investment advice. PDF library.