Bitcoin must reclaim $85K to overcome long-term holder selling, Glassnode says

Bitcoin faces significant resistance around $85,000 as long-term holders controlling approximately 4 million BTC acquired at higher prices could sell into a recovery, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.

In its weekly onchain report, published Wednesday, Glassnode warned that a substantial concentration of Bitcoin purchased between $85,000 and $118,000 could limit further gains as investors seek to recover their initial investments.

Long-term holders, defined as investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days, accumulated much of this supply during 2025. More than half of the coins held by this group were acquired above Bitcoin’s current market price, according to the report.

The $84,000 to $85,000 range has repeatedly rejected Bitcoin’s recovery attempts this year, with the cryptocurrency closing above the level on only five days since January.

Bitcoin briefly climbed to $87,100 in September but failed to sustain the move, leaving the resistance zone intact.

Glassnode said a series of daily closes above $85,000 would be necessary to establish the area as support, while a breakout above $87,500 accompanied by stronger ETF inflows could indicate that buyers are absorbing the overhead supply.

Bitcoin support strengthens near $77K as selling pressure eases

Despite the resistance above current prices, Glassnode identified improving conditions among investors who acquired Bitcoin more recently.

Most short-term holders purchased their coins below the current market price, with the largest concentration of supply around $77,000 and another cluster near $64,000.

These levels could attract buying interest if Bitcoin declines further, particularly from investors seeking to defend their existing positions.

Order book data from Binance also showed that buying liquidity has shifted lower after repeated tests of the $80,000 level.

Glassnode found approximately $42 million in bids concentrated between $78,000 and $79,000, compared with $24 million in mid-October.

Meanwhile, buying orders around $80,000 have fallen to just $3.4 million, suggesting that traders are increasingly positioning for support at lower prices.

The report also found that investors have become less willing to realize losses during recent declines.

Daily net realized losses reached approximately $630 million during Bitcoin’s August low, compared with a peak of just $27 million during the October 24 selloff.

The decline suggests that selling pressure has eased even as Bitcoin continues struggling to regain momentum.

Glassnode identified the True Market Mean, a measure of the average acquisition price of economically active Bitcoin supply, at approximately $77,900.

A daily close below that level could shift attention toward the short-term holder cost basis near $75,800, which represents another potential support zone.

Bitcoin ETF inflows weaken as volatility reaches 2023 lows

Institutional demand remains subdued, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording just $67 million in net inflows over the two weeks covered by Glassnode’s report.

The modest inflows followed a $653 million increase on October 19 that was largely reversed by subsequent withdrawals, including $540 million on October 22.

Trading activity has also slowed considerably.

Since May, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have averaged approximately $1.3 billion in daily trading volume, while activity fell to around $700 million on October 23, one of the quietest sessions of the year.

Glassnode said the combination of limited inflows and weak trading volume suggests that ETFs are contributing little additional buying pressure at current prices.

Bitcoin has also slipped below the average cost basis of US spot ETF holdings, estimated at approximately $81,500.

A recovery above that level would put the average ETF investor back into profit, potentially improving sentiment.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s one-month realized volatility has declined to approximately 25%, returning to levels last seen during summer 2023.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has experienced lower volatility on only about 5% of trading days since 2015.

The compression comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision, which could provide the next catalyst for a significant market move.

Glassnode noted that previous periods of similarly low volatility have preceded sharp price movements in both directions.

For now, Bitcoin remains caught between a substantial concentration of long-term holder supply near $85,000 and buying interest around $77,000 to $79,000.