4M barrels of Iranian oil pass US blockade, six tankers turned back

Around 4 million barrels of Iranian oil passed through the US blockade on April 24, according to TankerTrackers, while six tankers were turned back. The probability of Iran successfully targeting fewer than two ships by April 30 sits at 68% YES.

Market reaction

The market for Iran targeting ships by April 30 jumped to 68% YES, up from 19% just 24 hours ago. The largest move was a 10-point spike at 11:40 AM. Daily trading volume is $1,280 in USDC, with only $101 needed to move the price by 5 points, indicating thin liquidity. Check the latest here.

Why it matters

The selective enforcement (letting 4 million barrels through while turning back six tankers) suggests the blockade is softer than expected. That could reduce the likelihood of Iranian escalation in targeting activities. But traders are still pricing in a 68% probability of action by April 30, so the market hasn’t fully bought a de-escalation narrative.

What to watch

A YES share at 68¢ pays 1.47x if successful. With the April 30 deadline days away, watch for statements from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or Gen. Dan Caine, which could move this market sharply in either direction.

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