The CEO of the most valuable private defense company in the US just told everyone to calm down. Brian Schimpf, who runs Anduril Industries, warned that the defense tech sector is showing signs of a valuation bubble, with some firms raising capital at 50 to 100 times their forward revenue.

That kind of candor is unusual from someone who just closed a $5 billion funding round. But Schimpf’s warning, delivered in a Fortune interview on June 8, carries weight precisely because Anduril is the sector’s biggest beneficiary of the current capital flood.

The numbers behind the warning

Anduril completed its Series H in May 2026, a round led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz that doubled the company’s valuation to $61 billion from roughly $30.5 billion. The company has now raised over $12 billion cumulatively since Palmer Luckey, the Oculus co-founder, started it in 2017.

Revenue hit nearly $1 billion in 2024, driven by major US government contracts for AI-enabled autonomous systems. So when Schimpf describes what he sees as “a bit of a bubble” in the broader defense tech landscape, he’s speaking from a position of relative strength.

A company valued at $61 billion on roughly $1 billion in trailing revenue is itself trading at a lofty multiple. But Schimpf’s critique is aimed at less differentiated competitors, the ones raising at 50-100x forward revenue without the contract pipeline or technical moat to justify it.

What this means for investors

Schimpf’s bubble warning has implications that extend beyond defense tech’s immediate ecosystem. When a sector attracts this much capital this quickly, the resulting competition for deals pushes valuations to levels that make eventual public market exits significantly harder.

Anduril itself has signaled a preference to stay private for now. Palmer Luckey has discussed the company’s long-term path toward public markets, but Schimpf has indicated that current conditions don’t favor an IPO. That’s a telling choice for a company valued at $61 billion, suggesting that even Anduril’s leadership recognizes the gap between private market enthusiasm and what public market investors might actually pay.