Biden highlights US blockade success against Iran, Strait of Hormuz traffic impacted

President Biden emphasized the success of the U.S. blockade and military operations against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 14.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.

Biden’s comments point to continued U.S. military pressure on Iran’s capabilities and a sustained blockade. The May 15 market at 14.5% prices in deep skepticism about a rapid return to normal maritime traffic. The May 31 market on whether Trump announces the blockade lifted is at 54.5% YES, down from 72% a day ago.

The May 15 market has $36,459 in daily actual USDC volume, with $4,658 needed to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 2-point spike. The May 31 blockade market, with $95,253 in actual USDC volume, has dropped from 90% a week ago, a steep decline in confidence that the blockade ends soon.

Biden’s remarks work against any quick resolution, and traders should weigh that when pricing normalization timelines. A YES share at 14.5¢ for May 15 offers a potential 6.9x return if traffic normalizes, though the political signals are running hard in the other direction.

Watch for any shifts in Pentagon or White House statements on the blockade. A change in operational language could move both markets quickly.

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