The people who bought Bitcoin above $107K are having a rough year. But their pain might actually be the clearest signal that this bear market is approaching its final act.

Glassnode’s on-chain analysis shows that realized losses from Bitcoin holders are tracing a reversal structure remarkably similar to patterns that preceded recoveries during the 2018, 2020, and 2022 bear-market lows. The key battleground right now sits around $69,000, a price level that served as the previous cycle’s all-time high before Bitcoin blew past it.

The $107K to $118K supply zone is doing the heavy lifting

During Bitcoin’s run to over $126,000 in 2025, a significant cluster of buyers accumulated positions between $107,000 and $118,000. As Bitcoin corrected through the first half of 2026, that entire cohort found itself underwater, resulting in a sustained wave of realized losses that’s now reshaping the market’s on-chain profile.

Long-term holders have seen their realized losses account for roughly 43% of total on-chain losses. Daily loss realization from this group peaked at $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. That December 2022 comparison matters because it coincided with the aftermath of the FTX collapse, which marked the definitive bottom of the last cycle.

Five months in the deep value zone

Since early-to-mid July 2026, Bitcoin has been trading below two critical cost-basis metrics. The True Market Mean sits between $76,600 and $79,000, while the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis hovers around $72,000.

Bitcoin has now spent approximately five months below that True Market Mean, making this one of the longest sustained periods of “deep value” trading in Bitcoin’s history. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has been sitting below 1.0, indicating that losses are outpacing profits on a realized basis. Historical data shows these periods typically last over six months before meaningful recovery signals emerge.

The $69K battleground and what lies below

The $69,000 level has become the current focal point for price action during this capitulation phase. It was Bitcoin’s November 2021 all-time high before the market cratered into the last bear cycle.

Glassnode’s analysis suggests traders shouldn’t rule out further downside. The Realized Price, which represents the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin on the network, sits in the $53,000 to $55,000 range. If the $69,000 level fails to hold, that zone becomes the next logical area where the market could find a floor. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin briefly traded below its Realized Price before staging the recovery that ultimately carried it past $100,000.

What this means for investors

The bullish case rests on specific data points: realized losses are reaching extremes that historically precede recoveries, long-term holders are capitulating at levels not seen since December 2022, and the market has spent approximately five months in deep value territory.

The Realized Price around $53,000 to $55,000 remains untested as support, and prior cycles have shown that Bitcoin can trade below that metric before recovering. The six-month-plus timeline for loss realization periods to resolve means the market could still have weeks or months of grinding before a definitive turn.

For traders watching the $69,000 level, the key metric to monitor is whether realized losses begin declining from their peaks without Bitcoin making new lows. The buyers who entered between $107,000 and $118,000 are sitting on substantial unrealized losses, and every wave of capitulation from that cohort brings the market closer to exhausting its available sellers.