Bitcoin access expands in 50 countries since 2020, only 4 impose new restrictions

Bitcoin has gained increased access in 50 countries since 2020, with only 4 countries imposing new restrictions. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, is at 35.5% YES on Polymarket.

A CoinDesk report on the expansion signals growing adoption, a metric traders watch when pricing future targets. The Bitcoin $100K market sits at 35.5% YES. The $150K target is at 9.5% YES, up from 8% a week ago. Traders are clearly more focused on the $100K level.

The Asia-Pacific region and Latin America are leading adoption growth. The US and El Salvador have moved toward embracing Bitcoin, which feeds into price speculation. The $100K market’s largest recent move was a 3-point drop at 4:02 AM, showing sensitivity to short-term sentiment shifts.

Actual USDC trading volume for the $100K market is $5,971/day, with $4,757 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. That low cost to shift the market means even modest institutional moves can have outsized effects. The $150K market, with just $48 in daily trading volume, is a speculative outlier.

The expansion of Bitcoin access in 50 countries is a positive signal for the $100K thesis. At 36¢, a YES share on the $100K market pays $1 if Bitcoin hits the target, a 2.8x return. That payout makes sense if you expect institutional adoption to accelerate or regulatory clarity to increase demand.

Watch for announcements from BlackRock or MicroStrategy, and any shifts in regulatory stances from the SEC or central banks. These could be the catalyst for significant price movement.

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