Bitcoin demand rises as US investors increase exposure amid geopolitical tensions

US investor demand for Bitcoin is rising, with Coinbase’s positive premium pointing to institutional buying. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, is at 38% YES, up from 30% a week ago.

Market reaction

The market is reacting to strong ETF inflows: $471M into BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and $34M into Morgan Stanley’s MSBT ETF on April 6. With institutional investors increasing their exposure, the odds for Bitcoin hitting $100,000 have improved. The $150,000 target sits at 10% YES.

Why it matters

Coinbase’s premium signals bullish sentiment and heightened demand from US-based investors. This coincides with the recent collapse of a US-Iran ceasefire, which propelled Bitcoin to $71,362 on April 9, 2026, as crude oil prices fell and short positions were liquidated. Geopolitical tensions continue to affect Bitcoin’s price through risk-on dynamics.

What to watch

Order book depth analysis shows that $10,824 is needed to move the $100,000 market by 5 percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity. Daily volume at $1,776 in actual USDC shows real interest, but the market is susceptible to large orders shifting the odds.

Institutional buying activity supports the bullish case for Bitcoin, particularly as energy market de-escalation signals reduced macro risk. A YES share priced at 38¢ offers a 2.63x return if Bitcoin reaches $100,000. The bet depends on sustained institutional interest and geopolitical stability.

Watch for further ETF inflows and geopolitical developments. BlackRock’s next quarterly earnings and any changes in Fed policy are the key signals ahead.

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