Bitcoin futures open interest hits 14-month low at $8.4B

Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to a 14-month low of $8.41 billion as of April 11, 2026, and the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in April has fallen to 53% from 78%.

Market reaction

Bearish sentiment shows up across prediction markets. Bitcoin above $60,000 by April 19 is priced at 99.2%, with traders adjusting to current conditions. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026 sits at 36.5%, up slightly from 34% a week ago.

The market for Bitcoin above $58,000 on April 14 is at 99.9% YES with one day remaining, which means traders expect Bitcoin to hold its current levels through the very short term.

Why it matters

The April 19 market’s combined 24-hour actual USDC traded is $20,170, with $67,237 needed to move the price 5 percentage points, a relatively stable order book. The largest move in the Bitcoin price targets market was a 2-point spike, consistent with cautious positioning.

The drop in futures open interest and weak spot price momentum point to a cooling of the bullish sentiment from previous periods. Without a clear catalyst, the current setup offers little obvious draw for traders looking for upside.

What to watch

At 36¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000 by year-end, a 2.74x return. That bet requires belief in a meaningful shift in market conditions. Geopolitical developments, particularly around US-Iran relations, could move sentiment. Institutional inflows and regulatory announcements are the other variables that could change the current trajectory.

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