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Bitcoin’s price surge amid geopolitical tensions has traders betting against a dip below $60,000 this month. “Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?” sits at 99.9% YES, a sharp shift in sentiment.
The geopolitical crisis over the Strait of Hormuz drove the rally. The collapse of a ceasefire sent oil prices plummeting and ignited a $427 million short squeeze in crypto markets, pushing Bitcoin from around $70,741 to $74,966 in 24 hours. The market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 is now priced at
Volume at $781,456 in actual USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The depth is thin: just $3,459 face value required to move the April 19 odds by 5 percentage points. A single large trade could swing the market, though current sentiment is clearly bullish.
With geopolitical tension rising, Bitcoin has acted as a haven. Renewed conflict could reverse the risk-on sentiment, but traders are currently betting on stability above $60,000. At 99.9¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin stays above $60,000 by April 30, offering almost no upside but pricing in near-certainty.
Watch for developments between the U.S. and Iran. A new ceasefire or escalating conflict could shift these odds. Announcements from Trump regarding the Strait of Hormuz and any retaliatory moves by Iran are the most likely catalysts.
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