Bitcoin steady amid S&P 500 record, geopolitical tensions keep traders cautious

Bitcoin is holding steady as the S&P 500 hits a record high, but the options market isn’t pricing in a “peace trade.” The likelihood of Bitcoin staying above $60,000 by April 30 is at 100% YES, with persistent geopolitical tensions keeping traders defensive.

The market for Bitcoin remaining above $60,000 is near-certain across multiple April dates. April 16 sits at 99.9% YES, April 19 at 99.6% YES, and April 20 at 99.4% YES. These odds suggest traders expect no peace breakthrough significant enough to destabilize Bitcoin’s current range.

Trading volumes are substantial, with actual USDC trades nearing face values. The largest daily volume is in the April 15 market, where Bitcoin reaching $82,000 sits at 0% YES. Traders see no path to a bullish breakout given the current geopolitical situation.

The gap between Bitcoin’s flat price action and the S&P 500’s record signals risk aversion. Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions and hawkish U.S. rhetoric are keeping traders cautious. At 100% YES for Bitcoin staying above $60,000, a YES share at 100¢ pays $1. The bet here is on continued volatility rather than a peace-driven rally.

Watch for Federal Reserve announcements and any movement in U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations. Either could shift current market expectations.

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