BlackRock’s Investment Institute is keeping its chips on the table for US equities, reaffirming an overweight tactical position it has held since at least December 2024. The rationale boils down to two forces: artificial intelligence spending that’s accelerating faster than most forecasters anticipated, and corporate earnings that refuse to buckle under geopolitical pressure.

The firm plans to revisit its tactical views at its upcoming Midyear Investment Forum, with an updated Midyear Outlook expected on June 30, 2026.

AI spending is doing the heavy lifting

Hyperscalers, the mega-cap cloud and tech companies pouring money into AI infrastructure, are projected to spend $610 billion on AI infrastructure by 2026. That’s up from $360 billion in 2025, representing a roughly 69% increase in a single year.

BII has framed this dynamic with a line that captures their worldview neatly: “micro factors are macro drivers.” In English: individual company-level decisions about AI investment are now large enough to move the entire economy.

The surge in AI-related capital expenditure is anticipated to drive a series of earnings upgrades across technology and related sectors.

Geopolitics contained, for now

Early 2026 brought a period of uncertainty driven by regional conflicts, particularly tensions in the Middle East. BlackRock’s read was different. The firm assessed that the impact from geopolitical tensions was contained, meaning the disruptions weren’t severe enough to derail the fundamental earnings trajectory of US companies.

On the fixed income side, BII remains underweight long-term US Treasuries. Year-to-date, BII’s tactical overweight on US stocks has delivered positive performance.

What this means for investors

BlackRock manages roughly $10 trillion in assets. When BII publishes a tactical view, it doesn’t just reflect an opinion. It influences allocation decisions across pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and retail portfolios that use BlackRock products.

The opportunity is obvious: a $610 billion spending cycle creates winners across the technology supply chain. Companies tied to this buildout have already seen meaningful earnings revisions upward, and BlackRock expects more to come.

BII has signaled it will adjust its tactical views based on discussions at the Midyear Forum, with the updated outlook arriving June 30. The current overweight stance could be maintained, strengthened, or trimmed depending on what new data and internal analysis reveals.

A stance held consistently since December 2024 reflects a structural view that AI is reshaping corporate earnings in a way that favors US companies disproportionately.