California oil reserves dwindle, fueling West Coast price pressure

California’s oil reserves are nearing a critical low, adding to fuel price pressure on the West Coast. Crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 remains a remote possibility, with odds at 1% YES.

Market reaction

The odds have dropped from 2% a week ago. The April 30 sub-market is thinly traded, with just $2,513 in actual USDC changing hands daily against a face value of $100,828. It takes only $695 to move the price by 5 points, which tells you how shallow this market is. The WTI Crude Oil market sits at 0.4% YES, unchanged from a week ago, with similarly thin trading.

Why it matters

Even with California’s supply problems, the market response has been tepid. The largest move in the crude oil all-time high market was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM. Traders are skeptical that current geopolitical tensions will push prices over $120/barrel by month’s end.

What to watch

The current odds price in a very low probability of disruption severe enough to drive prices to record levels. Buying YES at 1¢ could yield a 100x return, but that requires a dramatic escalation within six days. Any sudden geopolitical developments or OPEC+ decisions around production cuts or strategic reserve releases could move these markets.

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