Cboe launches Cboe Predicts, its first products in a new prediction markets suite
The exchange giant is betting that a three-outcome payout model and a Charles Schwab partnership will give it an edge over crypto-native prediction platforms
Cboe Global Markets, one of the largest options exchanges on the planet, is officially entering the prediction markets arena. The company has unveiled Cboe Predicts, a new suite of event contracts built around the S&P 500 that ditches the simple yes/no format most traders associate with prediction markets.
Instead of the binary structure popularized by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, Cboe is rolling out a proprietary three-outcome payout model.
How the three-outcome model works
The Cboe Predicts framework offers three possible results. A full $100 payout if the trader nails the outcome. A partial payout within what Cboe calls a “Plus Zone” for traders who get the direction right but miss the exact target. Or a $0 payout for getting it wrong entirely. The contracts are based on daily S&P 500 closing levels, using Mini-SPX (XSP) contracts as the underlying instrument.
The Schwab connection and retail push
Cboe has partnered with Charles Schwab to distribute these contracts. The products will trade on the Cboe Options Exchange with centralized clearing handled by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC).
Cboe has also been building out educational resources aimed specifically at onboarding retail traders. Product launches are expected to commence in Q2 2026, with June as the target window. The Schwab partnership was formalized around June 19, 2026.
Positioning against Polymarket and Kalshi
The company is avoiding contracts on sports and political events entirely, staying firmly anchored to financial benchmarks like the S&P 500. Cboe Predicts uses the SPX options complex as its underlying, one of the most actively traded in the world, meaning it does not need to bootstrap liquidity from scratch.
What this means for investors
Cboe’s entry raises the stakes for every player in the space. Kalshi has been the dominant regulated prediction market in the US, but it doesn’t have Cboe’s institutional relationships or existing options infrastructure. Polymarket operates largely outside US regulatory reach and serves a crypto-native audience. Cboe’s products operate under OCC clearing and Schwab distribution, within the same oversight framework as traditional options.