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Iran’s call for a permanent end to the conflict is marred by new attacks on Khuzestan’s petrochemical sites and Israeli evacuation alerts in southern Lebanon. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The likelihood of an early ceasefire is fading as military actions continue. April 7 is now a long shot at 1.1% YES. April 15 stands at 6.5% YES, showing doubt about a quick resolution amid ongoing strikes. The April 30 market, at 17.5% YES, reflects traders’ skepticism about near-term peace.
Trading volume at $22,948 for April 7 shows a market sensitive to smaller trades, with $12,367 needed to move the price by five points. The largest move, a 2-point spike on April 30, indicates reactive trading without lasting confidence.
The ongoing strikes and tensions with Israel suggest Iran’s peace efforts aren’t changing the situation. With April 7 just days away, traders doubt a quick ceasefire. A YES share at 1¢ pays $1 if resolved, but traders see better odds in later dates.
Watch for changes in diplomatic efforts, especially from Oman or Qatar. Statements from Secretary of State Rubio or CENTCOM could impact these markets if they indicate a shift toward negotiations.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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