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Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil facilities and Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have hit the probability of a ceasefire. Ceasefire by April 7 is now at 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
This escalation has hammered the ceasefire markets. The April 7 market is nearly flat at 1.1% YES. The April 15 market has dropped to 6.5% YES from 22% a week ago. The April 30 market saw the biggest fall, now at 17.5% YES from 40%.
Ceasefire markets are active, with volume at $431,402 in USDC in the last 24 hours. Order book depth varies — $12,352 is needed to move the April 7 price by 5 points, showing moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market, likely reacting to unexpected news.
Military escalation makes a ceasefire by early April unlikely. With odds at 1.1¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire happens by April 7 — a 90x return. But for that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a diplomatic miracle happens in four days. Heightened military actions push the prospect of peace further out, as evidenced by the substantial decrease in odds across all near-term markets.
Watch U.S. diplomatic channels and any mediation efforts by Oman or Qatar. If Trump’s administration appoints an envoy or announces new talks, that could jolt these markets.
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