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Trump’s threat of strikes on Iran and Iran’s warning of retaliation have plummeted ceasefire odds. The April 7 ceasefire market sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
The market’s drop shows traders’ pessimism amid escalating tensions. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 22% a week ago. April 30 odds are at 17.5%, falling from 40% last week.
Traders see potential movement after April 30, with odds jumping 19 points by May 31. This suggests a possible catalyst in that period, but immediate ceasefire hopes are dim.
USDC trading volumes highlight market sentiment. April 7 trades $22,948/day, April 15 trades $51,692/day, while May 31 sees $159,165/day, indicating more confidence in a longer timeframe. The thin order book for April 7, needing $12,352 to move five points, shows limited liquidity.
Neither side is fully committing to military action yet, with traders focusing on geopolitical maneuvering. At 1.1¢, a YES share for April 7 offers a 90x return, but the chances are slim.
Watch for diplomatic efforts or intermediaries like Oman. Trump’s rhetoric will be key — any shift in tone could impact these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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