Earn with Nexo
China’s Foreign Ministry has denounced US sanctions on Chinese refineries linked to Iranian crude, and the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian sanctions relief by April now sits at 0% YES.
Market reaction
The sanctions target China’s Hengli Petrochemical Dalian refinery and Iran’s shadow fleet. Trump’s response to Iranian demands by April 30 is effectively dead at 0% YES.
The Trump visit to China market has moved in response. The April 30 sub-market is at 0.2% YES. The May 31 market holds at 74.5% YES, which suggests traders expect some diplomatic shift within the next month.
Why it matters
Volume and trading data show a clear pattern. The Trump visit market trades $33,512 in actual USDC daily, with moves like a 49-point spike seen previously. The April 30 sub-market is thin: just $560 can shift it 5 points, meaning it’s extremely sensitive to news.
China’s condemnation paired with the hardening of US sanctions points to a tougher diplomatic environment, not routine friction. The US went after a specific named refinery and Iran’s shadow fleet simultaneously, which is a direct escalation of economic pressure.
What to watch
For traders, the Trump visit to China by May 31 at 74¢ YES offers a potential
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.