A Chinese-linked tanker breached Trump’s Hormuz blockade and is en route to China, following China’s declaration that its ships will pass regardless of US sanctions. The market on UK warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES, down from 14% a day ago.

The breach has moved several related markets. UK warships entering the Strait odds remain low even with increased tensions. Meanwhile, the market for Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 is at 81% YES.

The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of May has no active trading data available. The tanker breach may force traders to reassess how quickly normal shipping patterns resume, given that China is now openly defying the blockade.

The breach complicates enforcement of the blockade and could extend its duration. Yet the 81% odds on Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 indicate traders are pricing in a diplomatic resolution. A YES share at 81¢ pays 1.23x on resolution.

Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or changes in naval deployments. Any confirmed increase in naval presence in the Strait would likely move odds on the warship markets.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.