Coinbase has rolled out prediction markets for US users, allowing them to place wagers on whether the price of major cryptocurrencies will rise or fall across timeframes ranging from 15 minutes to a full year.

The feature, powered by regulated event contract platform Kalshi, went live on January 27-28, 2026. It covers tokens including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE, and HYPE, with a minimum investment of just $1 in USD or USDC.

How it works

These are binary contracts, meaning the outcome is one of two possibilities. The simplest version: “Will BTC be up or down in 15 minutes?” You’re not buying the underlying asset. You’re buying a position on where the price will be at a specific point in time.

The platform supports 15-minute contracts, hourly intervals, and longer-term contracts that can stretch out to a year for certain assets.

Settlement relies on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index, known as BRTI, which averages 60 volume-weighted price readings collected during the final minute before settlement. Rather than pulling a single price at the moment of expiry, which could be manipulated or distorted by a thin order book, this approach makes it significantly harder to game the outcome with a well-timed market order.

Users can trade these contracts alongside traditional spot trading, stocks, and other financial products within the same Coinbase interface, using USD or USDC as trading currencies.

The bigger picture for Coinbase

This launch was first announced on December 17, 2025, during Coinbase’s System Update event. CEO Brian Armstrong has been publicly steering the company toward becoming what he calls an “everything exchange,” a platform where users can access any financial instrument without leaving the ecosystem.

By partnering with Kalshi rather than building its own prediction market infrastructure from scratch, Coinbase gets regulatory cover. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, which means the event contracts flowing through the platform carry compliance legitimacy. The initial routing of all market flow exclusively through Kalshi was designed to ensure regulatory compliance and operational stability.

Beta testing reportedly showed active trading, particularly in the 15-minute BTC contracts.

What this means for investors

For retail traders, the appeal is straightforward: a new way to express short-term directional views without the complexity of leverage, margin calls, or options Greeks. The downside is capped at your stake, and the $1 minimum makes it accessible.

For more sophisticated participants, a 15-minute or hourly prediction contract could serve as a lightweight hedge against short-term price dips without requiring interaction with a derivatives exchange.

For Coinbase as a business, prediction markets represent a new revenue stream. Each contract generates fees, and if the 15-minute contracts gain traction, the sheer number of daily settlements could drive meaningful revenue even at small per-contract margins. It also increases platform stickiness: users who trade spot, stocks, and prediction markets on Coinbase have fewer reasons to leave for a competitor.