Crypto inflows surge to $1.1B amid hawkish US rate expectations

Digital asset investment products drew $1.1 billion in inflows last week, according to CoinShares. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 35.5% YES.

Last week’s $1.1 billion is nearly five times the prior week’s $224 million inflow. The surge coincides with hawkish U.S. rate expectations, with capital flowing into crypto as a hedge. The Bitcoin $100,000 market prices in potential catalysts like broader ETF adoption or a dovish Fed shift.

The Bitcoin $150,000 market is at 9.5% YES, up from 8% a week ago. The gap between the two contracts reflects how much harder the market finds the $150K target, though the move from 8% to 9.5% tracks the same directional shift.

The $100,000 market saw $5,971 in daily USDC volume, and it takes $4,757 to move the odds 5 points, which indicates reasonable liquidity for a contract at this price. The largest recent move was a 3-point dip at 4:02 AM, suggesting sensitivity to off-hours news flow.

The $1.1 billion inflow week points toward continued institutional buying pressure. At 36¢, a YES share on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 pays $1 if it hits, a 2.82x return. That bet makes sense if you expect institutional flows to sustain or accelerate, or if you’re pricing in a Fed pivot.

Watch for BlackRock announcements, Fed policy changes, or large ETF inflow days. Any of these could move the contract several points.

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