Opta gives England a 73.9% chance of winning in normal time. Sébastien Desabre looked at that number and essentially said, “Good, they’ll underestimate us.”

The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s head coach has overhauled his tactical approach for the round-of-32 clash against England, switching to a compact five-man defense designed to neutralize one of the tournament’s most potent attacking sides.

The defensive blueprint

Desabre’s shift isn’t a last-minute panic decision. He’s been running this playbook against elite opponents throughout the tournament cycle, most notably deploying it against Portugal in the group stage, where the DRC held the European giants to a 1-1 draw.

The numbers back up the approach. Under Desabre’s management, the DRC have recorded 29 clean sheets in 57 matches. That’s a shutout rate north of 50%, which would be impressive for any national team, let alone one that missed the previous World Cup entirely.

Against Uzbekistan, that approach yielded a convincing 3-1 victory, with striker Yoane Wissa bagging two goals. Against Colombia, the defensive wall cracked in a 2-0 loss.

Desabre’s rebuild job

When Desabre took over in August 2022 on a four-year deal, the DRC were nowhere near World Cup contention. The team hadn’t appeared in a knockout round at the World Cup since 1974, a drought spanning half a century.

His win rate across 51 matches sits at 50.98%. One of the more interesting wrinkles in the DRC squad: 21 of their 26 players grew up outside the country. This is a diaspora team in the truest sense, with players scattered across European leagues who have chosen to represent their heritage nation.

The result of that work is a team that has generated genuine national pride back home. Reports of celebrations erupting across the DRC after their group stage advancement painted the picture of a country unified around a football team in ways that transcend sport.

Why the five-man defense could work against England

The 1-1 draw against Portugal is the proof of concept. Portugal brought similar firepower and similar expectations. They left with a single point and a healthy dose of frustration.

That said, the Colombia result illustrates the risk. When the defensive structure breaks down even slightly against top-tier opposition, the margin for error disappears. Two goals conceded, zero scored. If the game goes to extra time or penalties, that 73.9% win probability starts looking very different.