The world’s largest bilateral trade relationship, worth roughly $1.5 trillion a year, is about to clear its biggest legislative hurdle in Europe. Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, said on June 10 that the assembly’s upcoming vote on the US-EU trade deal is expected to pass with a clear majority.

Lange simultaneously flagged serious doubts about whether the US will actually hold up its end of the bargain.

The deal, hammered out at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in July 2025, was designed to defuse an escalating tariff standoff between Washington and Brussels. The EU committed to reducing duties on a range of US imports, following frameworks that discussed a 15% tariff level.

A parliamentary committee already endorsed the implementing legislation in early June 2026, clearing the path for a plenary vote projected for the following week.

The reliability problem

Lange’s concern isn’t about what’s written in the agreement. It’s about who controls the pen after signing.

The trade committee chair pointed to the centralization of decision-making in the White House as a core risk factor. Lange referenced similar challenges the EU has encountered with other trading partners like Brazil, where centralized political power has complicated the reliability of negotiated frameworks.

Trump has previously threatened to impose higher tariffs if the EU doesn’t fulfill its commitments by specified deadlines, with July 4 mentioned as one such benchmark. The dynamic creates an asymmetry where Europe locks in legislative commitments through its democratic process while the US retains the flexibility to pivot on a whim.

What’s actually in the deal

The agreement’s core mechanism involves the EU removing import duties on numerous categories of US goods. This was the central concession Brussels offered to prevent tariffs from spiraling upward on both sides of the Atlantic.

What this means for markets and investors

For investors watching transatlantic trade flows, the European Parliament’s expected approval removes one layer of uncertainty. Sectors heavily reliant on exports to Europe, particularly US manufacturing and agriculture, stand to benefit from reduced barriers to market access.

The $1.5 trillion annual trade relationship between the US and EU touches virtually every major sector. Automotive, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, financial services: all of these have significant exposure to the tariff environment.

The July 4 deadline that Trump has reportedly referenced adds a specific catalyst for near-term volatility. If the US administration perceives that the EU hasn’t moved fast enough on implementation, the threat of reimposed or escalated tariffs could rattle markets heading into the summer.