ExxonMobil’s senior vice president Neil Chapman told attendees at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference that dated Brent crude could rocket to between $150 and $160 per barrel. The timeline he gave was not months or quarters. It was two to three weeks.

The catalyst, according to Chapman, is something deceptively simple: the world is running out of stored oil. Global commercial inventories of crude and refined products have fallen to levels he described as “unheard of,” and the cushion between current stockpiles and the minimum needed to keep refineries and supply chains functioning is getting dangerously thin.

The inventory problem hiding in plain sight

Chapman pointed out that crude has been trading in a range of $90 to $110 per barrel for roughly six weeks. That range is being held together by ongoing inventory drawdowns, meaning the world is consuming stored oil faster than it’s replacing it.

Current stockpiles sit well below five-year averages. Western nations have leaned on strategic petroleum reserve releases to temporarily mask just how tight things have gotten. Those releases papered over the supply gap for a while, but they also mean the emergency backstop itself is depleted.

Chapman’s warning carries a specific threshold trigger. If inventories fall beneath the operational minimum required to keep the global refining and distribution system functioning, the $150 to $160 price target becomes not a forecast but an inevitability.

Geopolitics pouring gasoline on the fire

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes daily, have escalated significantly. Any disruption to traffic through that chokepoint would immediately remove millions of barrels per day from global supply at a moment when there’s essentially no buffer to absorb the shock.

ExxonMobil recently relocated its corporate headquarters from New Jersey to Texas, a move that coincided with these mounting Middle Eastern tensions.

Chapman isn’t alone in sounding the alarm. Chevron executives have issued parallel warnings, forecasting that oil prices could reach $140 to $160 per barrel in the near term based on the same supply constraints.

Chapman described current inventory levels as “unheard of,” warning that Brent crude could reach $150 to $160 per barrel within two to three weeks if stockpiles breach operational minimums.

What this means for investors and crypto markets

For the Federal Reserve, a surge in energy prices would push headline inflation sharply higher, potentially forcing the Fed to delay or even reverse course on easing monetary policy.

Energy stocks would be the obvious beneficiaries. ExxonMobil and Chevron would see windfall profits at $150-plus crude. Traders should also consider the second-order effects on Bitcoin mining economics. Higher energy prices directly increase the cost of proof-of-work mining, squeezing margins for miners already operating on thin profitability.

The window Chapman described is narrow. Two to three weeks is not a lot of time for markets to adjust positioning. The difference between $110 oil and $160 oil might come down to a single week’s drawdown number crossing the wrong threshold.