Germany anticipates US blockade of Iranian ports, not Strait of Hormuz

A German government spokesperson said the US is expected to blockade Iranian ports specifically, not the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April sits at 18% YES.

Several related markets have moved on the news. Countries conducting military action against Iran by April 30 remains at 4% YES, unchanged from last week, while other countries conducting military action against Iran by April 15 is at 9% YES, up from 5% yesterday. That market spiked 3 points at 1:19 PM, suggesting traders read the blockade news as raising the probability of near-term action.

The other countries conducting military action by April 30 market sits at 22% YES, down from 28% a week ago. The gap between the April 15 and April 30 contracts implies traders see a more likely catalyst in the second half of April.

Volume across these markets hit $6,516 in USDC over the last day. Liquidity is moderate: it takes $447 to move the April 15 market by 5 points. The largest single move was the 3-point jump tied to the blockade report.

Germany’s expectation of a port blockade puts pressure on the ceasefire and raises the probability of military escalation. The Trump-Iran deal market’s decline to 18% signals trader skepticism about a diplomatic resolution while tensions rise. A YES share at 18¢ pays $1 if the market resolves positively, a 5.56x return.

Watch for CENTCOM operational updates and Trump’s public statements. Any shift in US military posture or responses from other governments would move these markets.

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