Global stock markets are rallying despite the ongoing conflict in Iran, and the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0.7% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
The WTI Crude Oil market shows consistent low odds across multiple April contracts, each at 0.7% YES. Traders are pricing in a lower probability that the conflict will severely disrupt oil supply or push prices to extreme levels.
Trading volume is $514 in USDC daily. It takes $1,955 to move the price 5 percentage points, so the market isn’t easily pushed by small orders. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a dip from 1% to 0.7%, coinciding with the equity rally.
A YES share at 0.7¢ pays $1 if crude hits $160 in April, a 142.86x return. Winning that bet requires a dramatic escalation or a major supply disruption, and the current equity rally points in the opposite direction.
Watch for OPEC+ announcements or changes in the US-Iran ceasefire. Diplomatic developments or shifts in military activity could move these odds quickly.
