Goldman sees Gulf oil output rebound after Hormuz reopening

Goldman Sachs expects Gulf oil output to rebound following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 sits at 0.9% YES, down from 2% a week ago.

Goldman’s projection, reported by Reuters, suggests easing supply constraints, a bearish signal for oil prices. The April 2026 market resolves in 7 days, and the probability of WTI hitting $160 remains low. Related markets for WTI prices in April have also been trading at similarly low odds, with traders broadly skeptical of a spike.

Daily trading volume on the WTI $160 April market is at $487 in actual USDC. It takes $2,571 to move the market by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was negligible, consistent with the bearish outlook.

The Hormuz reopening is a concrete supply-side development, not background noise. At 0.9¢, a YES share would pay $1 if it resolves, a 111x return. But with output rebounding, the math looks unfavorable unless a new geopolitical shock disrupts supply again.

Watch for OPEC+ announcements on production adjustments and any developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Either could shift the odds considerably.

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