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Gulf states are moving to normalize relations with Iran amid the ongoing 2026 conflict. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
The market shows interest in diplomacy, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries acting as intermediaries. The April 30 ceasefire market jumped to 38% YES, indicating traders expect progress soon. The biggest increase is between April 15 and April 30, with a 20-point rise, suggesting a potential diplomatic catalyst.
Ceasefire markets trade $1.37M in USDC daily. A $43,954 trade moves the April 15 market by 5 points, showing institutional interest. The largest move was a 4-point spike in the April 30 market, reflecting optimism about diplomacy.
The GCC’s efforts are crucial. Their engagement, alongside US coordination, could stabilize the region. This reduces the chance of Iran’s regime collapsing, with the June 30 regime fall market dropping to 10% YES from 12% yesterday and 22% a week ago. A YES share at 10¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, but current diplomacy suggests stabilization.
Traders should monitor Qatar and Oman’s intermediary roles and any changes in rhetoric from involved parties, which could indicate further ceasefire progress.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 10.5% YES
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