US refueling aircraft stationed at Israel’s Ben Gurion amid Iran tensions

American KC-46 and KC-135 refueling aircraft are now stationed at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport. The Kharg Island oil terminal attack by April 30 market sits at 8.5% YES.

The deployment of U.S. refueling aircraft to Ben Gurion has moved the Kharg Island oil terminal market, though odds actually dipped from 10% yesterday to 8.5%. A week ago the market was at 6%, so the broader trend is upward. The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market has fallen to 3%, down from higher levels and consistent with traders pricing in continued hostility over diplomacy.

The Kharg Island market trades $2,155 in USDC daily, with a low barrier to movement: just $1,237 can shift the odds by 5 percentage points. That makes it susceptible to a single large bet. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop, likely trader recalibration rather than a response to new information.

Why it matters: KC-46 and KC-135 tankers are the aircraft you pre-position when you want to extend the range of strike packages. Their presence at Ben Gurion suggests preparation for operations beyond Israel’s immediate defensive perimeter, at a time when U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are ongoing. A YES share at 9¢ pays $1 if the attack occurs by April 30, a 11.1x return. The bet turns on whether the U.S. or Israel signals a harder line before the month ends.

What to watch: Trump’s social media posts and CENTCOM statements for any indication of military movements. Iranian military responses or statements from regional allies could shift odds quickly in a market this thin.

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