Yuri supertanker halts in Hormuz amid US naval blockade

The Yuri supertanker, carrying Iranian oil, has stopped in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Kharg Island oil terminal attack market now sits at 7.5% YES, up from 4% a week ago.

The Yuri’s halt amid a US naval blockade coincides with a move higher in Kharg Island oil terminal attack by April 30 odds. The Kharg Island control by April 30 market is at 4.5% YES. The diplomatic meeting by April 30 market plummeted to 1.7% YES, down from 22% a week ago, meaning traders see almost no chance of a near-term diplomatic resolution.

The Kharg Island attack market trades $7,105/day in actual USDC, with just $1,177 needed to move odds by 5 points. This is a thin market where a few substantial trades could shift the odds considerably. The Kharg Island control market is thicker, trading $22,789/day in actual USDC and requiring $9,474 to shift odds by the same amount, which means pricing there is more stable.

The Yuri tanker’s halt near Hormuz has pushed odds on military-related markets upward, but the reaction is measured. Attack odds nearly doubled from 4% to 7.5%, yet the market still prices a Kharg Island strike as unlikely. Buying YES on Kharg Island losing Iranian control by April 30 at 4.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves YES, a 22.2x return, but that bet requires belief in imminent military action.

Watch for US or Iranian military announcements, particularly from CENTCOM. Iranian actions at Kharg Island or a shift in US naval strategy would be the signals most likely to move these markets.

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