Gulf stock markets posted multi-percent gains as investors priced in the possibility that the US and Iran might actually reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows has been a geopolitical flashpoint for years, and the prospect of a diplomatic resolution sent traders into buy mode across the region.

President Trump announced on May 23 that a peace deal was “largely negotiated.” Oil prices fell sharply on the news, briefly dipping under $100 per barrel in early May as de-escalation hopes gained traction.

The deal that isn’t quite a deal yet

UAE presidential advisor Anwar Gargash offered a more measured assessment on May 22, putting the odds of reaching a final agreement at roughly 50-50. He stressed the necessity of addressing underlying issues to prevent a cycle of renewed conflict.

Throughout 2026, Brent crude has been swinging between approximately $70 and $120 per barrel. Multiple ceasefires, stalled negotiations, and false starts have created a market that moves violently on every headline. The dip below $100 on peace deal expectations is just the latest chapter in what has been a deeply volatile year for energy prices.

Bitcoin enters the Strait of Hormuz conversation

Perhaps the most unexpected development in the broader negotiation landscape involves Iran exploring bitcoin-based tolls and insurance mechanisms for oil tanker transit through the Strait. The idea is to use digital assets as a payment layer for transit fees, potentially sidestepping the traditional financial system that has long been complicated by sanctions.

What this means for investors

Gargash’s 50-50 assessment isn’t just diplomatic hedging. Negotiations of this complexity tend to drag on for months, and unexpected setbacks are the norm rather than the exception. Any breakdown in talks could send oil prices spiking back toward the upper end of that $70 to $120 range, reversing recent equity gains.

For crypto-focused investors, Iran’s bitcoin transit experiments are a development worth monitoring but not yet worth trading on. The gap between discussing digital asset payment mechanisms and actually implementing them at scale is enormous.