Herzog’s legal advisor has initiated talks with attorneys in Netanyahu’s corruption trial, opening the possibility of a plea deal. Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 trades at 5.5% YES, barely changed from 6% a week ago.

Market reaction

The June 30 market dipped slightly, while the April 30 market sits flat at 0.2% YES with two days until resolution. The most notable movement was a 44-point spike in the June 30 market at 11:40 AM, driven by a sudden surge in trading activity.

Why it matters

Face value on the June 30 contract is $112,761, but actual USDC traded is only $4,125. The order book is thin enough that $13,746 can move the June 30 market 5 points, making it vulnerable to large trades. The 44-point spike confirms that a few sizable orders can swing these odds dramatically.

What to watch

These talks are exploratory, not decisive. A plea deal could lead to Netanyahu’s resignation, but this is a preliminary step with no immediate legal consequences. At 5.5¢, a YES position pays 18x if it resolves. Without concrete movement toward a formal agreement, these talks may amount to nothing.

Key signals: public statements from Herzog or Netanyahu’s legal team, and any reporting on whether talks advance beyond this initial contact. A formal plea agreement would likely move these contracts sharply.

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