Israeli Air Force technicians have been accused of spying for Iran while Lebanon’s PM labels Israel’s actions as war crimes. The Trump-endorsed Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 holds at 100% YES, and the probability of a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by April 30 sits at 3% YES.

## Market reaction

The espionage charges against IAF technicians have not moved the Trump-endorsed ceasefire odds, which remain locked at 100% YES. Traders appear to expect Trump’s support to be unaffected by these developments. The permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by April 30 is flat at 3%, with minimal trading activity.

The June 30 peace deal market has dropped to 13.5% YES, down from 19% a day ago. Traders are increasingly skeptical about any near-term resolution, with more pessimism concentrated around the April deadline.

The Iran military action market holds at a flat 100% YES across all sub-markets, indicating consensus that some form of military action will occur before month’s end.

## Why it matters

The April peace deal market has only $883 in USDC traded, and it takes just $322 to move prices five points. That means a single modest order could shift the odds meaningfully. The June market requires $1,794 for a comparable move, showing slightly firmer conviction among participants.

The espionage charges and Lebanon’s accusations point to escalating tensions. The frozen Trump endorsement market at 100% suggests traders see his position as fixed regardless of controversy. The flat peace deal odds reflect deep skepticism about near-term diplomacy.

## What to watch

Buying YES at 3¢ pays $1 if a peace deal is signed by April 30, a 33.33x return. That’s a long shot, but not impossible if diplomatic channels open unexpectedly. Watch for statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry, unexpected diplomatic engagements, U.S. State Department movements, or announcements from Trump or Netanyahu.

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