IMF warns of global economic risks from US-Iran conflict amid Hormuz tensions

IMF members are set to warn about the global economic risks posed by the US-Iran conflict later today. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 is at 87% YES.

Trump’s Truth Social post claiming the Strait of Hormuz situation is over suggests de-escalation and a possible lifting of the blockade. The April 19 market is at 17.5% YES, a 9-point increase since April 17. The gap between 17.5% for April 19 and 82% for May 31 suggests traders expect a catalyst somewhere in that window.

The market’s actual USDC traded is thin relative to the headline odds. It takes $3,730 to move the May 31 market by 5 points. A 2-point spike at 2:38 AM tracked closely with Trump’s optimistic tone.

The IMF’s expected statement on the broader economic consequences of the conflict could pressure political leaders to resolve the blockade faster. But until concrete actions follow Trump’s rhetoric, these are just words. Buying YES at 87¢ offers a 1.22x return but requires a firm announcement, not just social media posts.

Watch for Trump’s next statements and any official White House or Pentagon confirmations on the blockade. Those are the real indicators of policy change.

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