Iran let a Japanese supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling selective de-escalation. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

The drop from 2% to 0.5% YES followed Iran’s decision to allow the Japanese tanker through, which eased immediate supply disruption fears. The market trades with $2,513 in daily USDC volume, and the order book has $695 in depth capable of moving the price 5 points.

June crude oil predictions are also likely to soften. The selective passage through Hormuz reduces the probability of sustained supply disruptions, making a $90 crude price by end of June less plausible.

The Kharg Island oil terminal attack market is unaffected. Odds there remain stable at 1.8% YES, unchanged by the tanker news. The Kharg Island market is priced around the risk of a direct strike on the terminal, and no new information on that front has emerged.

Japan’s passage through the Strait points to a controlled Iranian de-escalation and a possible diplomatic opening. Buying YES at 0.5¢ on the crude oil all-time high market offers a 200x return, but only if conditions shift dramatically toward a full blockade or major conflict escalation. Without that, this market looks bearish.

Watch for OPEC+ announcements or further diplomatic moves from Iran. Either could shift oil supply expectations and reprice these contracts.

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