Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared Tehran’s exclusive control over the Strait of Hormuz, warning that passage will be blocked if Iran faces a blockade. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 sits at 78% YES, down from 90% yesterday.

## Market reaction

Ghalibaf’s statement has rattled traders in the Hormuz blockade market. The odds for an April 19 announcement dropped to 8%, down from 28%. The term structure shows skepticism about immediate resolution, with a 70-point spread from April 19 to May 31, suggesting traders expect a key event in that window.

In the diplomatic meetings market, odds for a meeting by April 30 fell to 13.2%, consistent with a hardened Iranian stance. Ghalibaf’s aggressive rhetoric makes near-term diplomacy less likely.

## Why it matters

The Hormuz blockade market saw $29,602 in actual USDC traded over 24 hours, with $1,419 needed to move prices by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. A 5-point drop occurred at 12:19 PM, suggesting a significant sell-off after Ghalibaf’s comments.

Ghalibaf’s claim reinforces Iran’s leverage over a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil transit. For traders, this signals continued volatility with no immediate de-escalation. Buying YES at 78¢ pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by May, a bet that depends on diplomatic breakthroughs within 43 days.

## What to watch

Watch for Trump’s statements, CENTCOM operational updates, or moves from Iranian allies like Oman. These will shape odds in both the blockade and diplomatic meetings markets.

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