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Iranian drones struck the U.S.-operated Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, escalating the conflict. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago.
Traders are pessimistic about a quick resolution. The April 7 ceasefire market is at 8.5% YES. The April 15 market fell to 18.5% YES, from 20%. The April 30 market holds at 38.5% YES, with a 4-point spike indicating hope for a late April catalyst.
The likelihood of US forces entering Iran has increased. The April 30 entry market is at 52.5% YES, suggesting a military escalation. The December 31 odds are higher at 64.5% YES, reflecting expectations of a potential ground operation.
Trading volume shows $2,577,591 in USDC for the US forces entry market, with $37,215 needed to move the price 5 points, indicating a thick order book. Ceasefire markets have $1,365,780 in USDC volume across sub-markets.
The Iranian attack signals ongoing military escalation, bearish for ceasefire odds. At 8.5¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, offering a 12x return for optimists. Traders remain unconvinced. Watch for CENTCOM updates or diplomatic moves from Oman and Qatar, which could influence odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 10.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 52.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 64.5% YES
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