Iran fired ballistic missiles from launch sites in Tabriz and Urmia, two cities in the country’s northwest, marking another escalation in a conflict that has kept global markets on edge for months. The strikes are part of a broader pattern of military exchanges between Iran, Israel, and the United States that began during the Twelve-Day War in June 2025 and have continued well into 2026.

What’s happening on the ground

The Twelve-Day War, which ran from June 13 to June 24, 2025, saw Iran launch hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones in retaliatory barrages aimed at regional targets, including areas over Jordan. A ceasefire agreement was reached on June 24, but the word “ceasefire” has been doing a lot of heavy lifting since then.

On February 28, 2026, Israeli and US forces struck Iranian missile bases and nuclear-related sites, which predictably did not calm things down. Iran responded with further missile and drone attacks on Gulf targets, a cycle of escalation that has persisted as recently as early July 2026.

Tabriz and Urmia, both located in Iran’s Azerbaijan provinces near the Turkish border, host significant military infrastructure. IRGC facilities in the region have been repeatedly targeted by Israeli military operations in previous rounds of the conflict, making these cities both launch points and targets in the ongoing hostilities.

The sheer volume of ordnance involved is notable. Reports indicate hundreds of missiles and drones have been exchanged across multiple waves of strikes.

Why crypto isn’t reacting (yet)

There have been no direct mentions of crypto assets or trading activity linked to these missile launches as of early July 2026.

That’s unusual, at least by historical standards. When the US killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, Bitcoin jumped. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, crypto initially sold off before recovering.

The broader risk calculus

Oil markets, which are far more directly exposed to Middle Eastern conflict, have historically transmitted geopolitical stress into broader financial conditions. Higher energy costs feed into inflation, which affects monetary policy, which eventually lands on risk assets including crypto.

The Gulf targets hit by Iranian drones and missiles in recent months are particularly relevant here. Any sustained disruption to energy infrastructure or shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf region could reignite inflationary pressures that central banks had been working to tame.