Iran bars Israeli ships from Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions

An Iranian lawmaker declared Israeli ships would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 17% YES, down from 20% yesterday.

The lawmaker’s comments come amid ongoing Iran-Israel-U.S. tensions. In the Strait of Hormuz traffic market, odds for normal traffic by May 15 have dropped to 17%. The market for the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 remains at 2%.

Volume in the Strait of Hormuz market is at $36,459 in USDC traded daily, with $4,658 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. That indicates moderate liquidity, enough for some price stability when geopolitical headlines hit. The largest move was a 2-point spike at 3:48 PM, showing the market reacts quickly to new information.

Iran’s move to block Israeli ships raises the probability of further escalation and lowers the chances of normal traffic resuming. The statement could lead to increased military presence by other nations, possibly prompting the UK or France to send warships, though current odds for that remain low. A YES share in the Strait of Hormuz market trades at 17¢, paying $1 if conditions return to normal by May 15, a 5.88x return.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the UK Ministry of Defence. Either could shift odds if they signal changes in naval deployments or diplomatic progress.

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