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Iran is blocking and attacking US ships while allowing sanctioned tankers carrying Chinese oil to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and the US-Iran ceasefire market still shows 100% YES for April 15.
Market reaction
Iran’s actions against US ships have drawn attention to the UK warships through the Strait of Hormuz market. French frigates are already present in the strait, and a possible UK deployment would be a direct response to Iran’s naval moves. The crude oil price target for June could shift higher if further disruptions occur.
Why it matters
The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 100% YES for both April 15 and April 30, but Iran’s attacks on US ships raise questions about whether this holds. Face value trading volume is at $0, and market depth is thin, meaning a single large trade could move prices significantly. USDC spent remains low across these contracts.
What to watch
The contrarian play here is betting against a sustained ceasefire. At current levels, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire holds by April 15. The key variables are further Iranian provocations and any new diplomatic efforts.
Specific triggers to monitor: UK Ministry of Defence announcements on naval deployments and French naval movements near the strait. A firm commitment by European allies to assert navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz would directly affect these contracts.
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