Iran has labeled the US seizure of the MV Touska as “piracy” and threatened retaliation. The market on the UK sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 sits at 3% YES.

The capture of an Iranian tanker by US forces has raised tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The warships through the Strait of Hormuz market now sits at 3% YES, down from 10% a week ago. Traders see limited chances of UK naval intervention by month’s end.

The market has thin liquidity: $200 moves the odds by 5 points. Only $917 in USDC trades daily, meaning even modest orders shift the price. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop.

The US seizure of the Touska complicates diplomatic efforts and points toward further instability. Traders betting on UK warships entering the area are chasing a long shot. A YES share at 3¢ pays $1 if the UK sends warships by April 30, a 33.3x return. That bet requires believing the UK will take an escalatory step within seven days.

Watch for UK Ministry of Defence announcements or confirmed naval deployments, which would move this market. The more immediate driver is what the US and Iran do next.

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