Iran claims permanent control over Strait of Hormuz under Ayatollah’s orders

Iran’s deputy parliamentary speaker says the Strait of Hormuz will never revert to its former status, under orders from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market has dropped to 2% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

The April 30 peace deal market is nearly dead, with only 6 days left. Traders are shifting attention to May 31 at 30.5% YES and June 30 at 48.5% YES, a steep jump in expectations once the calendar moves past this month.

Volume at $854K in daily USDC traded across peace deal markets. It takes $27,666 to move the April contract 5 points, which suggests institutional participation. The uranium enrichment cessation by April 30 contract sits at 1.4% YES. The largest single move was a 6-point spike, showing how reactive traders are to headline risk.

Iran’s Hormuz claim is a direct threat to the world’s most important oil transit route, and it makes any near-term diplomatic agreement harder to imagine. A YES share for a peace deal by April 30 costs 2¢, paying 50x if somehow resolved.

Watch for CENTCOM’s response or any White House shift in sanctions policy. Either could move the May and June contracts sharply.

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