US oil prices surged above $89 per barrel after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the Polymarket probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 to 1.4% YES, up from 1% yesterday.

Market reaction

The April 2026 market saw a 25-point spike at 8:02 PM, briefly touching 26% before settling back down. Actual USDC traded was $704 against $72,164 in face value. It takes $1,655 to move the price by 5 percentage points, meaning even small trades produce large swings. The June 2023 market for Crude Oil hitting $90 has sparse current data but remains relevant with 73 days left.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit. Its closure directly threatens supply to major importers and changes the calculus on higher price targets. The 25-point spike, even on thin volume, shows how quickly traders reprice tail-risk scenarios when a physical chokepoint shuts down.

What to watch

The market’s pullback from 26% suggests some traders doubt the closure will last or expect a diplomatic resolution. Official statements from OPEC and the EIA, along with any military or diplomatic developments in the Gulf, will determine whether prices stay elevated or retreat further. A YES share at 1.4¢ pays $1 if WTI hits $160, a 71.4x return. That bet requires confidence in a prolonged supply disruption.

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