Iran conflict reroutes shipping, boosts European logistics profits

The probability of 80 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30 has dropped to 4% YES, down from 17% just 24 hours ago, as the ongoing conflict continues to choke one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.

## Market reaction

The April 30 market for 80 ship transits has fallen from 28% last week to 4% YES. The 7-day outlook is grim: Iranian attacks and US blockades are deterring significant vessel movement. The cost to shift odds by 5 percentage points is only $946, which means a single large trade could move the market substantially.

## Why it matters

With the Strait effectively closed, ships are rerouting via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and significant cost to voyages. European logistics companies are capturing short-term gains from the disruption, but prolonged closure threatens wider economic stability through higher freight rates and supply chain delays. The 4% YES odds show traders expect the blockage to persist through month’s end.

## What to watch

At 4¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 25x return. The current military situation makes that unlikely. Key variables: Iranian military movements, potential ceasefire talks in Pakistan, any signals from Admiral Brad Cooper, and signs of de-escalation from Iran’s IRGC.

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