Iran declines new US negotiations, impacting ceasefire markets

Iran has not agreed to a new round of negotiations with the US, according to IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News. The ceasefire by April 22 market is at 29.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.

The stalemate is moving multiple markets. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 45.5% YES, more than doubling from 17% a week ago, while the June 30 ceasefire is at 73.5%. Traders are pricing in a longer timeline for resolution. The uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 market is at 39.2% YES, also up from last week despite the lack of progress.

Daily volume on the ceasefire market is $699,190 USDC. It takes around $16,401 to move the April 22 odds by 5 points, which means the book is liquid but still vulnerable to large trades. The biggest recent price move was a 4-point spike to 24% at 12:18 AM, likely driven by a significant order. The diplomatic meeting location market, which asks whether no meeting happens by June 30, is at just 2.1% YES.

Iran’s refusal to engage points to a bearish near-term outlook for diplomatic progress. At 13¢, a YES share for the April 21 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, a 12.5x return. That’s a bet on an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the next five days.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or intermediaries like Qatar and Oman. Any sign of resumed talks or softened rhetoric could shift these odds fast.