Iran deploys foreign militias to control protests amid regime pressure

Iran is deploying foreign militias from Pakistan, Iraq, and Afghanistan to control protests, and the likelihood of the regime falling by June 30 has dropped to 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday.

The June 30 market is now priced at 7.5% YES, down from 8% a day ago but up from 6% a week ago. The largest move was a modest 1-point spike at 5:11 PM, pointing to relatively stable sentiment around the regime’s staying power.

The market sees $35,587 in actual USDC traded daily. It takes $16,830 to move the price by 5 percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity. The use of foreign militias signals that the regime is reinforcing its capacity to suppress dissent, which makes a quick regime change less likely and explains the downward pressure on YES shares.

Deploying foreign fighters signals the regime’s willingness to use any available force to hold power. At current odds, buying YES at 7.5¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 13.3x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need something like IRGC defections or serious infighting within the security apparatus.

Watch for reports from Tehran and other major cities. Increased protest activity or defections within the IRGC could shift odds quickly. U.S. and Israeli responses to the militia deployments could also move the market.

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