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Iran has intensified its military actions with a significant missile strike across the Middle East, reducing the likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Market sentiment is negative across all related markets. The April 7 market is nearly inactive at 1% YES with four days remaining. The April 15 market is also low at 6% YES. The May 31 market has seen a notable drop from 52% to 38% in a week, indicating reduced optimism for a resolution soon.
Trading activity is high, with the combined face value across markets at $3.59M and $438K in actual USDC traded. The April 30 market experienced a 2-point drop at 10:44 AM, reflecting a shift in trader expectations. With $51K needed to move this market 5 points, it shows institutional interest.
This escalation marks a significant development. As Iran increases its military actions, the chance for a quick ceasefire fades. At 19.5¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if successful, but it requires belief in a diplomatic breakthrough within 27 days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM and NATO allies’ reactions. Any change in US military posture could impact market dynamics further.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.4% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 19.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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