GCC and UN call for US-Iran ceasefire as market shows skepticism: FT

The Gulf Cooperation Council and the United Nations have called for an immediate ceasefire. The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 7 is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% just a day ago.

GCC and UN discussions signal ongoing diplomatic efforts, slightly boosting the US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market to 8.5% YES. The April 30 market dropped to 23.5% YES. The May 31 market fell to 45.5% YES, showing trader skepticism about immediate progress.

Trading volume is at $4.4M, with $535,930 in USDC traded. It would take $25,832 to shift the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating stability. The largest recent movement was a 1-point drop, showing steady price action.

Despite the GCC-UN meeting suggesting a diplomatic window, traders remain skeptical. A YES share at 1.8¢ for April 7 would pay $1 if resolved, a 55x return, but with only 5 days left, quick diplomatic action is needed. The market needs strong diplomatic signals to change significantly.

Watch for actions by Oman or Qatar and any changes in US or Iranian rhetoric. Announcements of talks or back-channel meetings would be significant catalysts.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES

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